The following relates to the transportation arts, data processing arts, data analysis, tracking arts, and so forth.
Intelligent transportation systems generally include multiple vehicles, routes, and services that are utilized by a large number of users, which may include automatic ticketing validation systems that collect validation information for travelers. Management and planning of transportation systems entails administrators trying to identify the origins and destinations of travelers. By identifying origins and destinations, the administrators are able to build and maintain more efficient transportation systems, such as adding additional routes between frequently visited origins and destinations, increasing the number of buses or trains on a route, increasing the size of facilities (bus stops, train stations, etc.), and the like.
The identification of origins and destinations of travelers also allows for the collection of valuable information about life in the city that may be useful to city officials, urban planners, commercial interests, event planners, and the like. For example, city officials may be able to identify those origins and destinations that have large numbers of travelers and accordingly increase law enforcement levels at such locations.
Previous attempts to ascertain this information about travelers entailed the use of expensive and time-consuming procedures, such as household surveys and roadside interviews. Such surveys generally cost cities several thousand dollars every year. Additionally, they are limited in time as they are performed annually, limited to only a fraction of a transportation network, limited in the number of travelers interviewed, and limited in accuracy (a non-negligible number of travelers refuse, misrepresent, or are unavailable). Thus, even when such a survey is performed, the results are suitable for only a limited amount of time and may include substantial gaps in the collected data.
One alternative to the origin-destination survey is counting, either by sensors or manually, the boarding and alighting number of travelers from vehicles (buses, trains, trams, etc.) at strategically selected locations throughout the city. This collection may implement additional counting or tracking devices, using additional personnel on vehicles, and the like. This alternative may provide greater traveler coverage than the survey, but the underlying combinatorial problem presents an intractable number of possible solutions, where the most likely are chosen and computed. This is not a trivial problem and has been for many years the main focus of transport research. For example, selection of the locations to collect data may be made based upon past usage statistics, such that changes in the transportation system may not be adequately reflected in the data collection.
Thus, it would be advantageous to provide a method and system to obtain origin and destination estimations with a high degree of accuracy using validation data collected from in place automatic ticketing validation systems.